Swine flu vaccination programme a success in Scotland

Published on June 26, 2012 at 4:52 AM · 2 Comments

The H1N1 (“Swine flu”) vaccination programme introduced in Scotland in October 2009 had a positive effect in reducing the number of hospital admissions and deaths as a result of H1N1 infection, according to an Article published Online First in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment (NIHR HTA) programme.

The researchers used detailed data collected by Scottish health agencies to examine the effect of H1N1 vaccination on the Scottish population.  Vaccination showed clear association with protection against pandemic influenza, and a 20% reduction in hospital admissions due to influenza-related disorders.  While only 16% of the people studied were vaccinated during the study period, the researchers found that 77% of people who had been vaccinated avoided contracting the H1N1 virus.

When analysing rates of hospital admissions, the researchers took into account admissions not only for flu-like symptoms, but also the related conditions of pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and cardiovascular-related disease, reflecting the fact that flu can often complicate (or be complicated by) these pre-existing conditions in vulnerable patients.

According to lead author Dr Colin Simpson, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Edinburgh, “Our findings help strengthen the international evidence base for the effectiveness of H1N1 vaccination programmes and the future distribution of pandemic influenza vaccines.  Policy makers ought to be encouraged that our vaccine estimates obtained are similar to those reported for seasonal influenza.  However, despite the best efforts to encourage the most vulnerable to be vaccinated, there were low rates of uptake in the very young and pregnant women who were most susceptible to the pandemic.”

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Comments
  1. Cindy Bogner Cindy Bogner United States says:

    I want to understand the study better.  Can you tell me if the data means that 23% of those who were vaccinated actually came down with (tested positive) for H1N1?  Also, in the rest of the population (those not vaccinated), what percentage came down with (tested positive) for H1N1?  Thanks.

  2. Cindy Bogner Cindy Bogner United States says:

    OK, here is what I found via Lancet website:

    "Findings

    Pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza vaccination began in week 43 of 2009 (Oct 21, 2009) and was given to 38 296 (15·5%, 95% CI 15·4—15·6) of 247 178 people by the end of the study period (Jan 31, 2010). 208 882 (85%) people were unvaccinated. There were 5207 emergency hospital admissions and 579 deaths in the unvaccinated population and 924 hospital admissions and 71 deaths in the vaccinated population during 23 893 359 person-days of observation. The effectiveness of H1N1 vaccination for prevention of emergency hospital admissions from influenza-related disorders was 19·5% (95% CI 0·8—34·7). The vaccine's effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was 77·0% (95% CI 2·0—95·0)."

    Without interpolating, adjusting, or otherwise manipulating the data, my math tells me this:  2.5% of the unvaccinated population were admitted to the hospital and .3% died.  2.4% of the vaccinated population were admitted to the hospital and .2% of them died.  Is anyone else underwhelmed?

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