According to a major investment bank there would be no smokers in Britain by 2050. According to Citigroup analyst Adam Spielman the decline is sharp and sure and would show up as no smokers in 30 to 50 years time. The analyses used data to reveal that the percentage of adult smokers in the UK has fallen from 53 per cent in 1960 to 21 per cent in 2008. Spielman said, “If these trends continue, then by 2050 many important tobacco markets will have gone to zero smoking.”
The report reads, “Taking the very long view, it’s hard to ignore 50 years of data. Smoking rates appear to be falling in a series of straight lines… If this continues, and it has for 50 years, then it means that the percentage declines in volumes will gradually accelerate… It is quite possible that there will be no smokers left in Britain or many other developed countries in about 30-50 years.”
As predictable the tobacco sector saw share drops in value yesterday after the release of the report with British American Tobacco shares down 54.5p and Imperial Tobacco 37p. Smoking was banned in public places in the UK in 2007. The tobacco industry has also faced price rise, plain packaging etc. Tobacco stocks have long been considered reliable holdings for share portfolios because profits keep growing as prices rise. But this report dispels the security in these stocks.
Experts at Citigroup also do not believe that the proposed plain packaging would stop people from smoking or affect profit rates. They say, “We don’t believe smokers are attracted to smoking by the packs because graphic health warnings already make them look revolting. Furthermore plenty of drugs are bought without branded packaging.”
Understanding the genetic and cellular impact of smoking