CMS predicts modest health spending growth, then acceleration

News organizations covered the the annual report by analysts at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, published today in the journal Health Affairs.

The Associated Press: Gov't Report: Health Cost Relief Only Temporary
The nation's been enjoying a respite from rising health care costs, but government experts say don't look for it to last. Health care spending will grow faster than the economy for the foreseeable future, says a report Tuesday from Medicare's nonpartisan economic analysts. ... By 2021, health care spending will be growing roughly 2 percentage points faster than the overall economy, about the same rate as the last 30 years (Alonso-Zaldivar, 6/12).

CNN: Health Spending Growth To Stay Low, Then Jump
[F]or the first three years, annual spending growth will likely average just 4%, slightly above the historic low of 3.8% recorded in 2009. That's in part because of the effects of the recession and slow economic recovery tamping down income, although health experts believe other factors may be at play, too. ... By 2014, however, the CMS expects the annual growth rate to jump to 7.4% (Sahadi, 6/12).

The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Health Spending Projected to Ease
The federal analysts said their projections could be significantly affected by changes in the law or the economy. ... In all, only 0.1% of the expected annual average growth can be attributed to the [federal health] law, the analysts said, although that comes to around $478 billion by 2021. The bigger reason for growth in health spending projected in the next decade is the aging of Baby Boomers, they said, as they make greater use of the Medicare (Radnofsky, 6/12).

Reuters: Government Forecasts Modest Health Spending Growth
The report forecast annual healthcare spending growth averaging 6.2 percent later in the decade as the economy rebounds and the Baby Boom generation retires in greater numbers, swelling the Medicare program for the elderly to 64 million beneficiaries and $1 trillion in spending in 2021. ... Spending is also predicted to reach 19.6 percent of U.S. gross domestic product from the current 17.9 percent (Morgan, 6/12).

Politico Pro: Health Spending To Near One-Fifth Of GDP
The data track closely with last year's report, which chronicled three years of historically low spending rates. This year's estimates are virtually unchanged, reflecting in large part the ways that the still-sluggish economy had dampened health care spending, the actuaries said. In the out years, ACA provisions meant to eke out Medicare savings, including provider cuts, and those meant to rein-in overly generous health insurance plans are expected to flatten the growth curve (DoBias, 6/12).