Deaths from mesothelioma, an asbestos-related lung cancer, will peak within ten years in the UK and then fall to a much lower level, according to new figures published in this week's British Journal of Cancer.
Mesothelioma is a type of cancer in the lining of the lungs or the lining of the abdomen. It is thought that the majority of cases are the result of exposure to asbestos, but the disease can take up to sixty years to develop.
Mortality in Britain rose from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1,848 in 2001 and is still increasing, but the new study suggests the rate will begin to decline by 2015.
Researchers from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), together with Professor Julian Peto of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and The Institute of Cancer Research, have improved on previous forecasts by taking account of the changing patterns of exposure to asbestos following the sharp reduction in asbestos use around 1980.
Professor Peto says: "The peak in mesothelioma deaths will be earlier and at a lower number than formerly thought. The abrupt reduction in asbestos exposure in 1980 has altered the lifelong patterns of exposure that people have experienced. This makes the previous age-related models inaccurate.
"Our new model for predicting mesothelioma mortality rates is more complex and takes account of the varying exposure to asbestos of different age groups at different times of their lives."
For example, men born around 1920 who entered the construction industry would have had an increasing level of exposure to asbestos throughout their career. But for men born around 1950 the pattern of exposure would have been completely different.
Early in their career, exposure would have been higher than in earlier generations, but their exposure would have abruptly dropped at about the age of 30 when asbestos use virtually ceased.
Mortality from mesothelioma in younger men has already been observed to be lower than in previous generations, which adds weight to the accuracy of the new model. However, uncertainties remain as to the future of mesothelioma mortality beyond 2020.