According to scientists the H5N1 strain of bird flu circulating in Asia which could mutate into a lethal strain and cause a pandemic, could be contained.
It would take, they say, three million doses of antiviral drugs, vigilance and reducing social contact to contain an outbreak of human avian flu and prevent a global pandemic that could kill millions.
Health officials have always feared the virus could mutate into a lethal strain that could rival or exceed the Spanish flu pandemic that killed between 20-40 million people worldwide.
However two teams of scientists who used computer models to simulate an outbreak of a mutated strain capable of spreading between humans, believe with careful control strategies and a mobile stockpile of anti-flu drugs, it would be possible to stop an influenza pandemic.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of
According to scientists the H5N1 strain of bird flu circulating in Asia which could mutate into a lethal strain and cause a pandemic, could be contained.
, says their work shows that control of a human outbreak of a new strain of
influenza is potentially possible, but only when the epidemic is in its earliest stages.
Ferguson says the plan would only work before the initial cluster of infections reached 50 cases.
It would mean that healthy people living in the infected area would need to be treated with antiviral drugs such as Roche's Tamiflu or Biota's Relenza. Schools and workplaces might also need to be closed and travel restricted to prevent the spread of the virus.
Ferguson says the worse case scenario would need an international stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs to be deployed, anywhere in the world, within three days.
If successful, the researchers estimate the plan could contain an outbreak within 60 days.
Meanwhile Professor Ira Longini and scientists at influenza pandemic in Atlanta, Georgia, have constructed a similar computer model.