In the past, when government leaders, policymakers and scholars have turned their attention to peace and security issues, the talk invariably has focused on war, arms control or anti-terrorism strategies. But Julian Palmore believes it's time to expand the scope of the conversation.
"One thing that is not talked about enough is infectious diseases," said Palmore, a mathematics professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the director of the university's Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security. "Of course, the spread of AIDS has been and continues to be a major concern worldwide," he said, "but an even greater threat, with regard to international security, may well be avian influenza," or bird flu, as it's commonly called.
And while biologists, epidemiologists and other scientists are engaged in efforts to better understand how the disease is contracted and spread in animals and in humans, Palmore said world leaders and policymakers need to seriously consider the potential international security implications that would result from an avian influenza pandemic.
"Natural disasters, especially pandemics, can and do affect international security in many ways," the U. of I. professor wrote in an article titled "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: A Clear and Present Danger to International Security," scheduled for publication in an upcoming issue of the journal Defense & Security Analysis.
"They can have disastrous effects on countries' economies, infrastructures, populations, public health and stability. As a consequence of natural disasters, governments may fail and populations may be decimated.
"Thus," Palmore writes, "planning for international security needs must take into account the effects of natural disasters.
"Since avian influenza is of utmost concern in Asia and in many other parts of the world, it is imperative that states' governments and nongovernmental organizations pay attention to the evolution of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus."
Palmore, who also addresses this topic in a brief critical commentary in the March issue of Defense and Security Analysis, said avian flu poses a potential threat to human security on two fronts.
Because the virus attacks poultry, in effect, it attacks economies by wiping out the foodstocks of affected nations. Both the poultry and tourism industries in China and other Southeast Asian countries where the virus has been detected already have been disrupted by outbreaks of bird flu.
And in today's global marketplace, such disruptions could have broader, more long-lasting consequences, as economic ripple effects could impact other countries as well.
To date, only 80 deaths have been attributed to avian flu worldwide by the World Health Organization, and those deaths have resulted from human contact with infected birds. But, Palmore said, the greatest looming threat to international security is a scenario in which the virus mutates in an abrupt manner, resulting in human-to-human transmission.
If that occurred, he said, the number of human deaths tallied would likely be "on a wider scale than any attack by humans on humans other than nuclear war."
"People think of international security as things people do or don't do," Palmore said. But, he noted, the consequences of infectious-disease outbreaks and natural disasters can be equally severe. We've recently witnessed the effects of just one tidal wave one hurricane. And as devastating as those occurrences have been, they are not ongoing events over an 18-month period."
While theories on how the avian flu is transmitted and spread among poultry and other fowl remain inconclusive, Palmore said scientists suspect that migratory birds play a major role.