A clinical model that includes 11 factors has been developed to help predict the 5-year risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women, according to a study in the November 28 issue of JAMA.
The estimated 329,000 hip fractures that occur annually in the United States are associated with a high rate of illness and death and high cost. Prevention of hip fracture is a high priority for patients, physicians, and public health, according to background information in the article.
John Robbins, M.D., of the University of California at Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, and colleagues evaluated clinical risk factors for hip fracture in postmenopausal women to create a predictive model for the 5-year risk of hip fracture. The study included data on a total of 93,676 women who participated in the observational component of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a multiethnic study. Factors were identified that were predictors of hip fracture, which were then validated using data on 68,132 women who participated in the clinical trial. The model also was tested in a subset of 10,750 women who had undergone dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans (DXA; an imaging technique) for bone mass density assessment, which is used to predict risk of hip fracture.
During an average follow-up of 7.6 years, 1,132 hip fractures were identified among women participating in the observational study (annualized rate, 0.16 percent), while during an average follow-up of 8.0 years, 791 hip fractures occurred among women participating in the clinical trial (annualized rate, 0.14 percent).