By using a combination of inexpensive infection control measures, hospitals around the world could prevent half the new cases of extensively drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB), according to a new study in The Lancet by researchers at Yale School of Medicine.
Dubbed “Ebola With Wings” for its ability to spread and kill rapidly, XDR TB has been reported in 37 countries and has been identified in all regions of the world, including the United States. The disease has become an epidemic among hospitalized patients in South Africa, according to researchers on the Yale study. Cases of XDR TB have been diagnosed in every province of South Africa, and are particularly concentrated in the area surrounding Tugela Ferry.
To assess the spread of XDR TB, Yale School of Medicine M.D., Ph.D. student Sanjay Basu and the research team developed a computer model of a virtual world that incorporated over two years of data from Tugela Ferry. The model was 95 percent accurate at predicting the trends in XDR and other forms of TB in the region. The Yale study provides the first estimates of the XDR TB burden in South Africa. According to the model over 1,300 cases of XDR TB could arise in the Tugela Ferry region by the end of 2012.
“It is critically important to take steps now to prevent further spread of XDR TB,” said Basu. “If we wait to act, this form of TB will spread further in the community and beyond borders. When a drug resistant strain hit New York in the 1990s, it cost over $1 billion to bring under control.”
Tuberculosis is caused by bacteria that target the lungs and is spread through the air when an infected person coughs or sneezes. HIV-positive people constitute a vast majority of the XDR TB cases, given their greater risk of infection.