Cancer Reserach UK experts are predicting that lung cancer rates will drop by nearly a fifth over the next 20 years, according to new figures.
Successful anti-smoking measures - such as the tobacco advertising ban and the legislation making public places smokefree - have meant the number of smokers has continued to drop.
But, although lung cancer rates will continue to fall - from around 50 people per 100,000 to around 40 by 2024 - the overall number of people diagnosed with the disease looks set to increase.
People living longer, combined with the delay between smoking and the onset of lung cancer means cases in the UK are expected to rise from around 38,500 to more than 41,600 by 2024.
Smoking causes around 90 per cent of lung cancers so as smoking rates have fallen so has the rate of lung cancer. The difference in lung cancer trends for men and women is dramatically mirrored by the smoking patterns for each sex.
More men than women have been diagnosed with lung cancer since records began. This is because more men have smoked. By 2024 women's lung cancer rate will drop, reflecting the female smoking rate falling by half between the mid-70s and today. But, the number of women diagnosed in the UK each year is expected to increase from around 15,500 today to more than 18,000 by 2024.
Men's lung cancer rates were highest in the early 1970s with more than 150 men in every 100,000 diagnosed with lung cancer. This reflected the peak in smoking rates in the 1940s and 50s. Even though the male lung cancer rate is set to drop by more than a quarter between now and 2024 the number of cases diagnosed in the future will remain similar to those diagnosed today - around 22,000.
Professor Max Parkin, co-author of the report, said: "These predictions are based on what we know to date about the current figures and trends for lung cancer. We can see that lung cancer rates should continue to drop but the number of cases will increase.