Decision Resources: NSCLC drug market to grow from $4 billion in 2009 to over $6.5 billion in 2019

Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues finds that the non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) drug market will increase from approximately $4 billion in 2009 to more than $6.5 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer reveal that market growth will be driven by the increased uptake of Eli Lilly's Alimta and Genentech/OSI Pharmaceuticals/Roche/Chugai's Tarceva as well as the launches of premium-priced emerging therapies which include Sanofi-Aventis's iniparib, Boehringer Ingelheim's BIBW-2992 and Pfizer's crizotinib.

In 2009, antimetabolites dominated the NSCLC market with Alimta accounting for nearly three-quarters of sales within this drug class. Owing primarily to the generic erosion of Alimta and competition from emerging therapies, the market share of antimetabolites will decline. By 2019, the antimetabolites market share will be reduced to 24 percent, making it the second-largest drug class in NSCLC, while the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor class will garner a market share of 26 percent.

"The NSCLC drug market will continue to move toward personalized medicine through 2019, resulting in an increasingly fragmented market," said Decision Resources Analyst Janie Cox, Ph.D. "Treatments are becoming tailored to histology and clinical and molecular characteristics and targeted agents will have—at best—a modest patient share. However, their premium prices will ensure that they will garner significant market share."

The findings also reveal that in 2009, Alimta and Tarceva and Roche/Genentech/Chugai's Avastin were the leading therapies in NSCLC, capturing nearly two-thirds of overall sales. Through 2019, Alimta and Tarceva—which are increasingly being used in the first-line setting, and also as maintenance therapies—will continue to dominate the market, as will Avastin, which will maintain steady uptake.