Australia is gripped with a fourfold increase in the number of people suffering flu. This rise is even before the usual peak season in August and September. Already nearly 8,000 cases have been reported compared with about 2,000 at the same time last year. The increase has disproportionately affected Queensland, NSW and South Australia. In January and February more than 1,700 people were recorded with flu, compared with fewer than 300 the year before.
According to Alan Hampson, an adviser to the World Health Organization and the federal government on influenza, said the rates in summer and autumn were higher than any in the past decade. He said, “We might expect a severe flu season.” Australian Medical Association Victorian president Dr Harry Hemley, a Northcote GP, said he had seen a marked increase in the number of flu cases in the past week. Department spokesman Bram Alexander said these levels were still well below peak seasonal activity.
The weather and flooding in parts of the country could be blamed say experts. It was not understood why flu seemed to be worse during high rainfall and cold weather, said Dr Hampson, who is the chairman of the Influenza Specialist Group, an expert team that aims to reduce the impact of flu and receives funding from drug companies that produce vaccines. It could be the weather or other factors such as people spending more time indoors he speculated.
Dr Hampson said people at high risk from flu, such as the elderly or those with chronic health conditions, still had a limited time to be vaccinated. If people took antivirals within the first day or two of illness they might reduce its length and severity, he said.
Heath Kelly, the head of the epidemiology unit at the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory added that swine flu was still the dominant strain, and pregnant women and the very overweight were at extra risk. “We suspect widespread disease in the first wave, plus the vaccine, plus a second wave of disease, has left a lot of vulnerable people protected,” she added.
Robert Booy, a professor of paediatrics and child health at the Children's Hospital at Westmead, and the University of Sydney, said a relatively mild flu season last year could have contributed to the higher rates. “Having a quiet winter often leads to a bad winter because people lose immunity,” Professor Booy said. Parents should not be concerned about children having the vaccine as it was different from the one that caused some to experience fevers and fits last year, Professor Booy said.
Influenza and its associated complications kill about 2500 Australians a year.
CDC studies show effectiveness of flu vaccines across all age groups