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Smallpox Prognosis

The overall case-fatality rate for ordinary-type smallpox is about 30%, but varies by pock distribution: ordinary type-confluent is fatal about 50–75% of the time, ordinary-type semi-confluent about 25–50% of the time, in cases where the rash is discrete the case-fatality rate is less than 10%.

The overall fatality rate for children younger than 1 year of age is 40%–50%. Hemorrhagic and flat types have the highest fatality rates. The fatality rate for flat-type is 90% or greater and nearly 100% is observed in cases of hemorrhagic smallpox.

The case-fatality rate for variola minor is 1% or less. Other than vaccination, treatment of smallpox is primarily supportive, such as wound care and infection control, fluid therapy, and possible ventilator assistance.

Flat and hemorrhagic types of smallpox are treated with the same therapies used to treat shock, such as fluid resuscitation. Patients with semi-confluent and confluent types of smallpox may have therapeutic issues similar to patients with extensive skin burns.

No drug is currently approved for the treatment of smallpox. However, antiviral treatments have improved since the last large smallpox epidemics, and studies suggest that the antiviral drug cidofovir might be useful as a therapeutic agent. The drug must be administered intravenously, however, and may cause serious renal toxicity.

Further Reading


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