The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that greater efforts will be needed if the world is to head off the threat of an avian influenza pandemic springing from the presence of the avian influenza H5N1 virus in poultry in Asia.
"Unless intensive efforts are made, a pandemic is very likely to occur," Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO's Regional Director for the Western Pacific, told a news conference in Shanghai.
Dr Omi cited four reasons for concern:
- the H5N1 virus causing avian influenza among poultry in Asia is circulating more widely than initially believed;
- the cyclical history of previous influenza outbreaks means a pandemic is due;
- virtually nobody would be immune to a new human influenza virus that resulted from outbreaks in poultry; and
- the increased global movement of people and goods means the virus could spread far more quickly and extensively than in the past.
"We need to strengthen systems and human capacity so that countries can detect, report and respond immediately to emerging threats," Dr Omi said.
Since the first reported outbreaks of avian influenza in Asia at the beginning of this year, there have been 39 confirmed human cases in the region, 28 of whom died. The latest case was on 8 September, when an 18-year-old man died in eastern Thailand. He had been raising fighting cocks. H5N1 has been confirmed in nine Asian countries, where tens of millions chickens have died or been slaughtered.