Fertility in Scotland is below that of other countries and regions in the UK.
In comparison with their English neighbours, Scottish women leave longer gaps between their children and are more likely to stop at two children. As a result fertility in Scotland is not only below the average required to replace the population (as is the case in many developed countries) but also the lowest in the UK.
The potential causes and key implications of Scotland's low fertility are outlined in a new publication, ‘Scotland's demographic trends: insights from Scotland's Demography Research Programme Findings'. This booklet highlights research findings from a two-year research initiative, Scotland's Demography Research Programme, funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Scottish Government.
Findings suggest that Scotland's lower fertility is related both to spacing (longer gap between first and second/subsequent children) and stopping (smaller families) behaviour. Scottish women are no more likely than those in England to remain childless and are in fact more likely to give birth to their first child when they are younger than English women. Half of Scottish women have a first birth before 27.42 years, compared with 28.08 years for English women.
However, while half of English women have a second birth within 3.2 years of their first birth, the comparable timescale is 3.5 years for Scottish women. For those having a third child, Scottish women again wait longer than their English equivalents. A quarter of English women have a third birth by 3.3 years after their second birth, compared to 4.1 years in Scotland. In fact, fewer Scottish women have families of three or four children than English women. More Scottish women stop at two children.
New research reveals that Scottish women do not intend to have smaller families. A survey shows that men and women in Scotland would like to have more children than they actually have, with the average ideal family size in the study sample being 2.48 children. Yet, in practice, the average was 1.24 children. “Differences in fertility behaviour may therefore be responses to immediate circumstances rather than longer-term intentions,” argues researcher Professor Elspeth Graham.
The study points to several possible factors underlying Scotland's current fertility trend including: