Experts predict rise in food prices

By Dr. Ananya Mandal, MDSep 27 2010

With food prices expected to rise by 50 per cent within 10 years experts are planning to discuss the issues in Brisbane. There is to be a three-day summit on food security this week. With the global population touching nine billion by 2050, Australia’s role in feeding the world will be explored.

According to Agri-food expert Professor Geoffrey Lawrence of the Global Change Institute, food prices would rise by about 50 per cent over the next decade, putting food security at the top of national and international agendas. “Of course if you're going to have reduced supply or you're going to have more mouths to feed, the price of food will increase…The aggregate price of food globally has doubled between 2000 and 2010 in real terms and it looks like food's going to be about 50 per cent higher over the next decade,” he said. This forum is open to the public and is about working out the best ways for Australia to feed its own population while contributing to the world's pantry.

National Farmers Federation president David Crombie also feels, “There's a projected increase in the world population from 6.5 to 9 billion so it's more mouths to feed, and at the same time we are projected to have reduced water and available land and inputs are going to be expensive…So there's a real squeeze coming on for world food production.” He explained Australia's agricultural sector currently exports about 65 per cent of what it produces. He added, “We feed about 40 million people outside Australia. There is an opportunity for Australia to do more with less, there is an opportunity for Australia to be part of that world solution…What we need to do is give farmers the tools to get on with the job.”

Fresh foods will also also become dearer soon experts warn. Professor Lawrence said, “People with lower incomes tend to be those who buy junk foods…It's disadvantageous, for themselves and for the country.”

According to Professor Michael D'Occhio, the institute's co-director of food security, every arable land may be needed for plants for biomass or biofuel, instead of food. Factor in rising costs of energy, fuel and fertiliser, climate change and water shortages and it's easy to see there's a problem, he said. Demands are also on the rise he said. He said that the developing world would soon be unable to provide for their own, “particularly South-East Asia where, in about 10 or 15 years time, there will be 250 million people who will have the same purchasing capacity as we have in Australia.” He added, “That's just in Asia alone…The increased capacity to buy food will push prices up.”

At this stage with rising diabetes, obesity and heart disease this news is not a good one says Professor D'Occhio. “We need to focus attention on the next generation in socially disadvantaged groups…That needs to start in primary school, and it needs to progress through to high school.”

At the Public Health Association of Australia's 40th annual conference in Adelaide, chief executive Michael Moore said cheaper foods tended to be high in fat, sugar and salt. He added, “We'll see a huge increase in chronic disease, particularly associated with obesity and hypertension…The healthiest way to eat is fresh, whole foods.”

The public forum to discuss agriculture and food security issues will be held at the University of Queensland's Gatton Campus, from 1pm AEST, on Tuesday, today.