Apr 6 2012
Costs for all types of medical plans are expected to increase by 9.9
percent for 2012, according to a survey by Buck
Consultants, A Xerox
Company (NYSE: XRX). This is the first time since 2001 that Buck's
survey has projected cost increases less than 10 percent for any type of
plan. The firm has been conducting its survey since 1999.
In a national survey of 129 insurers and administrators, Buck measured
the projected average annual increase in employer-provided health care
benefit costs. Insurers and administrators providing medical trends for
the survey cover a total of approximately 109 million people.
In its 24th National
Health Care Trend Survey, Buck found costs are projected to increase
at rates that are more than a full percentage point lower than its prior
survey, as shown in the following chart.
"The reduced trend factors reported in our survey reflect that health
insurers, who may have previously added margins to account for health
care reform benefit changes mandated for 2011, have now removed those
margins for 2012 projections," said Daniel Levin, FSA, a Buck principal
and consulting actuary who directed the survey. "The reduction also
reflects lower expected costs as a result of the economic slowdown.
Employees are trying to reduce their out-of-pocket expenses and are
postponing elective medical services."
"Also, the trends are not varying by plan type as they have in previous
surveys," added Levin. "This may indicate that insurers do not currently
see network type as a significant reason for modifying trend factors."
Health insurers reported an average prescription drug trend of 9.6
percent. This is down 1.1 percent from the prior survey. It is also more
than twice the 4.6 percent reported by pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)
- third party administrators of prescription drug programs who generally
do not take any underwriting risk.
For plans that supplement Medicare, health insurers reported a projected
increase of 5.8 percent excluding prescription drug coverage, up from
5.3 percent in the prior survey. This lower trend of Medicare Supplement
plans reflects the impact of federal controls on Medicare fees and the
lower increases expected in Medicare deductibles and copays.
"Despite the lower trend factors found in our survey, health care costs
continue to outpace both general inflation and wage increases --
creating real business challenges for organizations," said Levin. "We've
seen increased interest from plan sponsors for strategies to optimize
alternative delivery systems such as exchange models and Accountable
Care Organizations."
The survey also reported trend factors for dental and vision plans.
Health insurers use trend factors to calculate premium rates, and large
self-funded employers use these trend factors to budget their future
health care costs. In general, trend factors provide for price increases
that may result from such variables as inflation, utilization of
services, technology, changes in the mix of services, and mandated
benefits.
Source: Buck Consultants