Burden of stroke over next 40 years to skyrocket: Studies

By Dr. Ananya Mandal, MDFeb 13 2011

Rising Stroke

Findings presented at the American Stroke Association’s International Stroke Conference in Los Angeles revealed that strokes are expected to rise by 350% over the next four decades.

The data from the study came from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Census. University of Michigan researchers considered the current trends to help calculate the potential burden of stroke by 2050. They calculated the estimated incidence of strokes among Mexican-Americans will rise from about 26,000 in 2010 to more than 120,000 in 2050. Among non-Hispanic whites, the researchers predict that strokes will rise from about 300,000 in 2010 to more than half a million in 2050 – about a 75% increase.

Shawnita Sealy-Jefferson, MPH, of the University of Michigan Ann Arbor notes that these “the tremendous number of strokes projected has large personal, social and economic consequences for the United States”. In fact the CDC figures show that in 2010 heart disease and stroke in the United States cost more than $503 billion in health care and lost productivity from deaths and disability. This will only rise if the trends continue say researchers.

Study co-author Lynda D. Lisabeth said, “Efforts to prevent stroke and reduce stroke-related disability in both Mexican-Americans and non-Hispanic whites are critical. Lifestyle changes can reduce one’s risk for stroke.” These changes include controlling weight, healthy diet and exercise, not smoking and avoiding excess alcohol.

Stroke in the young

Another worrying finding was that stroke is rising sharply among U.S. adults age 35 and under. This was also presented at the American Stroke Association's International Stroke Conference.

The researchers at U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta analyzed hospital data by age and gender and found declining stroke rates of 25 percent in men and 29 percent in women age 45 and older.

According to Xin Tong, a health statistician with the CDC’s Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, the number of ischemic strokes related hospitalizations increased 51 percent in males ages 15-34 and increased 17 percent in females. The study also showed that here was a 31 percent increased stroke rate in boys ages 5-14 and a 36 percent increase among girls. But in those ages 36-44, there was 47 percent increase in stroke among men and an increase of 36 percent among women.

Tong said, “Acute ischemic stroke is currently considered something that mostly happens to older people, but awareness of rising rates in the young is important or else important stroke treatment may be unnecessarily delayed in younger patients…We cannot link anything in particular to the trend in younger patients, but I believe the role of obesity and hypertension will prompt a big discussion. Unfortunately, right now we can’t speculate on the causes.”