The effect of population aging on the number of admissions to hospital for inpatient treatment is examined by epidemiologist Enno Nowossadeck in the latest issue of Deutsches -rzteblatt International (Dtsch Arztebl Int 2012; 109[9]: 151-7.
Germany's population is steadily growing older, and the number of hospital admissions is increasing. By taking nationwide statistics on hospital treatment in the years 2000 and 2009 and classifying the patients by year of birth, sex, and diagnosis, the author investigates whether these two trends are connected.
His analysis reveals, for example, that the high birthrate in the years 1934 to 1944 was responsible for a large number of admissions for treatment of colon cancer, while the low birthrate in the years immediately after World War II led to a low rate of prostate cancer in the study period.
Moreover, the probability of hospital admission for treatment of a given disease also changes with time. This can reinforce, weaken, or cancel out the influence of population aging. In the case of heart failure, for instance, the effects of aging and the increased likelihood of hospitalization resulted in much higher case numbers than would have been expected from population aging alone.
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