Researchers at the University of Iowa, together with colleagues from the California Institute of Technology and New York University, have discovered how a part of the brain helps predict future events from past experiences. The work sheds light on the function of the front-most part of the frontal lobe, known as the frontopolar cortex, an area of the cortex uniquely well developed in humans in comparison with apes and other primates.
Making the best possible decisions in a changing and unpredictable environment is an enormous challenge. Not only does it require learning from past experience, but it also demands anticipating what might happen under previously unencountered circumstances. Past research from the UI Department of Neurology was among the first to show that damage to certain parts of the frontal lobe can cause severe deficits in decision making in rapidly changing environments. The new study from the same department on a rare group of patients with damage to the very frontal part of their brains reveals a critical aspect of how this area contributes to decision making. The findings were published June 19 in the Journal of Neuroscience.
"We gave the patients four slot machines from which to pick in order to win money. Unbeknownst to the patients, the probability of getting money from a particular slot machine gradually and unpredictably changed during the experiment. Finding the strategy that pays the most in the long run is a surprisingly difficult problem to solve, and one we hypothesized would require the frontopolar cortex," explains Christopher Kovach, Ph.D., a UI post-doctoral fellow in neurosurgery and first author of the study.
Contrary to the authors' initial expectation, the patients actually did quite well on the task, winning as much money, on average, as healthy control participants.
"But when we compared their behavior to that of subjects with intact frontal lobe, we found they used a different set of assumptions about how the payoffs changed over time," Kovach says. "Both groups based their decisions on how much they had recently won from each slot machine, but healthy comparison subjects pursued a more elaborate strategy, which involved predicting the direction that payoffs were moving based on recent trends. This points towards a specific role for the frontopolar cortex in extrapolating recent trends."
Kovach's colleague and study author Ralph Adolphs, Ph.D., professor of neuroscience and psychology at the California Institute of Technology, adds that the study results "argue that the frontopolar cortex helps us to make short-term predictions about what will happen next, a strategy particularly useful in environments that change rapidly -- such as the stock market or most social settings."
Adolphs also hold an adjunct appointment in the UI Department of Neurology.