Life expectancy is on the rise in England and Wales, but more so for some than others

By Sally Robertson, B.Sc.May 1 2015

In England and Wales, life expectancy is projected to reach 85.7 years for men and 87.6 years for women by 2030, according to findings published in The Lancet.

The new estimates show a narrowing of the gap in life expectancy between men and women, from 6.0 years in 1981 to 1.9 years in 2030.

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Using mortality and population data from the Office for National Statistics, Majid Ezzati (Imperial College London) and colleagues assessed age at death and district of residence across 375 local authority districts in England and 376 in Wales, between 1981 and 2012. Using advanced statistical methods, they evaluated patterns of mortality and then predicted life expectancy across the different districts.

The researchers found that over this period, the national life expectancy in England and Wales increased by 8.2 years for men (to 79.5 years) and 6.0 years for women (to 83.3 years).

However, this progress has come at the cost of rising inequality trends. Between 1981 and 2012, the difference between the bottom and top 1% of life expectancies across these districts increased by 0.9 years for men and 1.1 years for women.

Ezzati and colleagues found that life expectancy was lower across more deprived districts. In 2012, the lowest life expectancy recorded for men was in areas of urban northern England including Blackpool (75.2 years), followed by Manchester and then Liverpool. For women, the lowest life expectancy was found in Middlesbrough and Manchester (80.2 years), followed by Blaenau Gwent in southern Wales. The highest life expectancies were recorded in areas of southern England and some of London’s most affluent districts. The City of London had the highest life expectancy for men (83.4 years), followed by South Cambridge and East Dorset. For women, the highest life expectancy was also in the City of London (87.3 years), followed by East Dorset, Kensington and Chelsea.

Furthermore, the researchers estimates showed that the differences between the bottom and top 1% of life expectancies across the districts are expected to continue rising steadily until 2030, by another 2.2 years for men and 2.7 years for women.

Ezzati says: “The present UK coalition Government has cut public spending on a range of social determinants of health under the rhetoric of austerity. Such policies will, at best, cause the rising inequality trends to continue, and could well worsen them because their adverse effects are particularly large on children and working-age people, and on more disadvantaged social groups and communities, with signs of a rise in poverty already emerging.”