Forecasting News and Research

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Report: Probabilistic forecasts of the impact of vaccines and variants on the U.S. COVID trajectory

In a report summary released today Thomas McAndrew, a computational scientist and assistant professor at Lehigh University's College of Health includes probabilistic forecasts of the impact of vaccines and variants on the U.S. COVID trajectory over the next few weeks.

3 Mar 2021

New tool predicts trends and outcomes in individual patients

Clinical research requires that data be mined for insights. Machine learning, which develops algorithms to find patterns, has difficulty doing this with data related to health records because this type of information is neither static nor regularly collected.

26 Feb 2021

International cooperation is key to get equal access to COVID-19 vaccines

Almost 130 countries are yet to receive a single COVID-19 vaccine dose, as ten high-income countries secure the majority.

25 Feb 2021

Experts predict 125,000 fewer COVID deaths if 50% of U.S. population initiate vaccination by March 1

A new report combining forecasting and expert prediction data, predicts that 125,000 lives could be saved by the end of 2021 if 50% or more of the U.S. population initiated COVID vaccination by March 1, 2021.

30 Jan 2021

Wuhan study has important implications for managing COVID-19 pandemic

Researchers in China and the United States have conducted a study assessing the household transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that has important implications for managing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

19 Jan 2021

Infectious disease early warning system compensates for existing gaps in surveillance

Researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health developed an infectious disease early warning system that includes areas lacking health clinics participating in infectious disease surveillance.

11 Jan 2021

Comparing Google AI and human intelligence for the forecasting of COVID-19

Junko Kurita et al. from Japan have compared Google AI forecasting with a statistical model by human intelligence and recently presented it in a preprint medRxiv* paper.

22 Dec 2020

Cardiovascular risk due to COVID-19-related unemployment 4-6 times higher among Maoris vs. non-Maoris in NZ

A new study uses a life-table model to predict and estimate the loss of health, healthcare costs to society, and inequities in healthcare in New Zealand.

21 Dec 2020

Researchers develop a technique to predict epileptic seizures

A third of epilepsy sufferers are resistant to treatment for this neurological disease that affects 1% of the population.

18 Dec 2020

Researchers develop new online calculator for estimating mortality risk from COVID-19

A new online calculator for estimating individual and community-level risk of dying from COVID-19 has been developed by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

11 Dec 2020

COVID-19 cases likely to increase to 20 million in the U.S. by end of January 2021

President-elect Joe Biden has signaled that fighting the COVID-19 pandemic will be an immediate priority for his administration. He recently announced a coronavirus advisory board of infectious disease researchers and former public health advisers along with an updated strategy that will include increases in testing and contact tracing, as well as transparent communication.

23 Nov 2020

Multi-model forecasts could help inform management of COVID-19 pandemic

A team of researchers from various institutions in the UK has reviewed multi-model forecasts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic made between the end of March and mid-July 2020.

16 Nov 2020

Orange County struggles with health equity — and battles state restrictions

California's most popular amusement park has become the focal point of a struggle over how best to contain COVID-19 while keeping the economy afloat.

10 Nov 2020

New AI-powered forecasting tool makes prediction of flu outbreaks easier

Predicting influenza outbreaks just got a little easier, thanks to a new A.I.-powered forecasting tool developed by researchers at Stevens Institute of Technology.

2 Nov 2020

Researchers develop infectious disease model for forecasting elections

Forecasting elections is a high-stakes problem. Politicians and voters alike are often desperate to know the outcome of a close race, but providing them with incomplete or inaccurate predictions can be misleading.

29 Oct 2020

Researchers investigate how brain signaling gives rise to decision-making

Increasingly, biologists are turning to computational modeling to make sense of complex systems. In neuroscience, researchers are adapting the kinds of algorithms used to forecast the weather or filter spam from your email to seek insight into how the brain's neural networks process information.

27 Oct 2020

Researchers propose using complexity science to respond better to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally disrupted U.S. healthcare organizations. Hospitals have faced drug and device shortages and created new ICUs overnight. Care plans have evolved out of necessity, and hospitals' carefully constructed patient flow systems were up-ended.

23 Oct 2020

Novel method can predict influenza epidemics

Researchers at Linköping University, Sweden, have developed a unique method to predict influenza epidemics by combining several sources of data.

16 Oct 2020

Combining genetic and experimental data can enable more accurate prediction of influenza virus

Combining genetic and experimental data into models about the influenza virus can help predict more accurately which strains will be most common during the next winter, says a study published recently in eLife.

14 Oct 2020

Universal facemask use could prevent hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Forecasting team has advised that universal mask-wearing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic could save hundreds of thousands of lives and delay the need for mitigation measures such as stay-at-home policies.

12 Oct 2020