Predictive model of prostate cancer risk

Combining PSA with other risk factors for prostate cancer (CaP) may result in individualized risk prediction.

In the April 19, 2006 issue of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Dr. Ian Thompson and colleagues report a predictive model for CaP based upon the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) database.

PCPT included 18,882 men with a normal rectal exam and PSA level in a study of chemoprevention using finasteride or placebo over a 7-year period. At the end of the 7-year study period, participants in the placebo group who underwent prostate biopsy were included in this report.  CaP risk modeling was performed using risk variables such as family history of CaP, race, PSA, DRE, previous biopsy history, age, and PSA velocity. Multivariable logistic regression model analyzed the data.

The study cohort consisted of 5,519 men.  Most were Caucasian, and did not have a previous biopsy. Variables statistically associated with an increased risk of CaP included increasing PSA, positive family history, and abnormal DRE. Having a previously negative prostate biopsy was linked to a statistically decreased risk of CaP. 

Interestingly, PSA velocity was associated with a 6-fold increase in CaP risk by itself, but in combination with the above significant variables neither PSA velocity nor patient age added independent prognostic information. African Americans had a 40% increased risk of CaP, which was just statistically significant. 

The authors point out that the report is limited by patient characteristics not reflecting those of the general population. 


J Natl Cancer Inst 2006; 98:529-34.

Thompson IM, Ankerst DP, Chi C, Goodman PJ, Tangen CM, Lucia MS, Feng Z, Parnes HL, Coltman CA Jr

UroToday - the only urology website with original content written by global urology key opinion leaders actively engaged in clinical practice.


The opinions expressed here are the views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of News Medical.
Post a new comment

While we only use edited and approved content for Azthena answers, it may on occasions provide incorrect responses. Please confirm any data provided with the related suppliers or authors. We do not provide medical advice, if you search for medical information you must always consult a medical professional before acting on any information provided.

Your questions, but not your email details will be shared with OpenAI and retained for 30 days in accordance with their privacy principles.

Please do not ask questions that use sensitive or confidential information.

Read the full Terms & Conditions.

You might also like...
New drugs show promise in shrinking breast cancer brain metastases