A study revealing how the climate will shift by 2050 in major cities around the globe has been released by apartment rentals platform, Nestpick.com. Climate change is at the forefront of many people’s minds, but most especially Millennials, Gen-Zs, and the forthcoming younger generations. Shifting weather patterns will have the largest impact on the upcoming demographics’ lives, and will likely be a deciding factor for where they ultimately choose to settle. To understand how some of the most popular cities in the world will be affected by climate change, the apartment platform set out to determine how potential temperature shifts, water shortages, and rising sea-levels could impact our planet in the next twenty to thirty years. Nestpick hopes that this study will not only help those looking to relocate to make informed decisions about how climate change may impact their chosen city but also add to the growing debate about how the correct legislation and safeguarding procedures can be put in place to ensure the longevity and liveability of these cities.
How the study was conducted:
Before beginning the study, it was important for Nestpick to acknowledge the difficulty of climate change prediction, and the added challenge of presenting climate data in a way that is easily understandable. To undertake this challenge, several existing research methodologies from established climate change experts and reports were consulted to build the framework for the research. These include Jean-Francois Bastin, an Ecologist at the University of Ghent, the Koppen-Geiger climate classification system, the World Resources Institute data on water shortages, and more. A list of 85 cities which featured in top tourist destinations lists for Gen Z and Millennials, and which were also covered in these existing studies, was then finalized. Looking at climate categorization, average temperature, sea-level changes and water stress, the cities which are predicted to experience the highest and lowest climate change shift between now and 2050 were determined.
Please note that this study does not take into account current spending on countermeasures or how this may impact predicted climate shifts. Please find the complete methodology and full data set on the results page: https://www.nestpick.com/2050-climate-change-city-index/
Key findings
The key findings below all reveal scores out of 100, where the higher the score, the greater the potential climate shift impact between now and 2050.
The table below shows the top 10 cities with the highest Total Score, indicating the greatest predicted overall climate change by 2050:
The table below shows the top 10 cities with the largest Climate Shift Score, indicating the greatest shift in temperature and climate type by 2050 :
The table below shows the top 10 cities with the greatest Water Stress Increase Score, indicating those cities where the demand vs. supply ratio for water has the largest predicted increase between now and 2040 :
The table below shows the top 10 cities with the greatest Potential Sea-Level Rise Impact Score, indicating those cities most at risk of flooding in 2050 :
Further findings
● Of the high-income countries included in the index, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Melbourne, Australia and Cardiff, UK face the greatest potential climate change impacts by 2050.
● Of the upper-middle-income countries included in the index, Bangkok, Thailand, Shenzhen, China and Istanbul, Turkey faces the greatest potential climate change impacts by 2050.
● Of the lower-middle-income countries included in the index, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Nairobi, Kenya and Marrakesh, Morocco face the greatest potential climate change impacts by 2050.
● Ljubljana, Slovenia has the greatest potential temperature shift by 2050 of 3.53 °C, followed by US Cities Cincinnati (3.38°C) and Baltimore (3.35°C).
● Rio de Janeiro has the smallest potential temperature shift by 2050 of 0.95°C, followed by Belfast, UK (1.10°C) and Cape Town, South Africa (1.11°C).
● Singapore, Singapore, Sydney, Australia and Phnom Penh, Cambodia have the lowest Climate Shift Scores in the index, indicating that their climates may not alter drastically in the next thirty years, as compared to other cities included in the study.
● Doha, Qatar may have the worst water stress by 2040, with a predicted demand vs. supply of 51.21, followed by Barcelona, Spain (35.98) and Denver, USA (18.28).
● 72 cities in the index have a Water Stress Increase Score of 1.00, indicating that it is likely that there will only be a minimal difference in their water demand vs. supply between now and 2040.
● Marseille, France, Orlando, USA, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil have the lowest total climate change scores, indicating that these cities may experience the least dramatic shift in climate between now and 2050 overall, as compared to other cities included in the index.
Quotes
These results are eye-opening to our team at Nestpick, as a number of the cities which will undergo the most drastic changes in climate over the next three decades such as Bangkok and Amsterdam are some of the most popular destinations with expats and contractors looking for opportunities abroad. Millennials, Gen Z-ers and those even younger will increasingly need to keep climate change in mind when searching for the city they would like to eventually settle in. Governments need to be aware of potential changes coming so that they can mitigate damage. Proper funding into infrastructure and safeguarding would help to ensure that these cities stay ahead of climate-related problems, and ensure the livelihood of these urban centers for future generations.”
Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO at Nestpick
“In layman's terms, the ‘business as usual’ scenario used for the climate shift predictions in this study do not illustrate the worst-case scenario, nor the best case scenario, but a realistic middle-point. The important message here is that these climate shifts will be taking place to some degree, and that every one of us needs to pay attention, not only those in charge.” comments Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO at Nestpick. “Consider Australia’s ongoing wildfire crisis - a 2008 report commissioned by the Australian government warned that this was an inevitability and yet those in power continue to dispute the effects of climate change. Our hope is that this index can increase awareness and further the conversation about how we are globally going to tackle the impacts of climate change.”
‘Climate emergency’ was the Oxford Dictionary’s 2019 word of the year with usage of the word increasing by 10,000% over the previous year, illustrating that the way our planet is changing is at the forefront of many people’s minds. Whether it is down to the ‘Greta Effect’, increased media awareness due to the public demonstrations by groups such as Extinction Rebellion or a consequence of the real impacts we are currently seeing such as the wildfire crisis in Australia, it’s clear that people are concerned about how their cities will change in the future. Our hope is that this index helps to further the discussion around climate change, and helps make some of the complicated data surrounding climatology to be more accessible and understandable.”
Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO at Nestpick
“While this study does not take into account planned or current countermeasures, it’s worth keeping in mind the vast sums of money that governing bodies are putting into climate change, especially for rapidly rising sea levels,” comments Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO at Nestpick. “While the UK Environmental Agency is planning to spend billions to tackle flooding in London, and the Dutch have built the Maeslantkering storm surge barrier, many nations may not have the capital to put such expensive measures in place, or may not even support the idea of funding countermeasures in the first place.”
The climate crisis impacts everyone, irrespective of location, wealth, age, creed, or color. Local administrators and corporations alike must start dealing with the uncomfortable reality of the climate emergency, which may start with responding to the demands of the younger generation led by activists like Greta Thunberg. As compromising as it may seem today, inaction will only lead to more compromises for our future. We hope this study contributes to the efforts of climate activists and scientists worldwide to address this crisis effectively.”
Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO of Nestpick.com.
“Cities are at the forefront of the climate crisis: over 70% of cities are dealing with the effects of climate change, and yet 75% of global carbon emissions are caused by cities. Given how connected they are with their constituents, local officials, more than any other authority, are in the best position to set the agenda on climate change,” comments Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO of Nestpick.com. "Recent examples, such as the pledge of 438 U.S. mayors committing to the Paris Agreement despite President Trump’s withdrawal of the deal, are representative of that. Although national governments may not be listening, what our cities can do both individually and together to address the climate crisis is to call for governments to act everywhere.”
Climate change predicted to spike cardiovascular deaths in China