As World Osteoporosis Day approaches (20 October), it marks a year-long campaign dedicated to raising global awareness of this bone disease. A major unmet need in this space is the low rate of diagnosis and treatment. The high burden of osteoporosis on both patients and society poses a big challenge to public health systems. With many patients going untreated, the impact of the disease is only likely to intensify, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s report, ‘Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2027’, reveals that the overall osteoporosis market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%, reaching peak sales in 2027 of $10.2bn. However, poor diagnosis rates, badly perceived drug side effects and low compliance rates will continue to prove major barriers to growth over the next ten years.
Besides the low rates of diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis, there is a significant unmet need around the safety profiles of the currently available treatment options, particularly regarding their long-term use, according to key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData.
Valentina Gburcik, PhD, Senior Director of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Disorders at GlobalData, commented:
In sales, the osteoporosis market is currently dominated by Amgen’s Prolia (denosumab) and Eli Lilly’s Forteo (teriparatide). These companies have outlived historic market leaders such as Novartis, Merck and Roche, which lost their dominance of the market upon patent expiration of key anti-resorptive therapies, notably bisphosphates. Novel therapies such as Radius Health’s Tymlos (abaloparatide) and Amgen’s Evenity (romosozumab) have joined Forteo in the osteoporosis market to form an assortment of anabolic therapies that not only prevent bone resorption but stimulate bone formation. However, high price tags, as well as the safety and efficacy issues associated with these drugs, present a barrier for their first-line use.
Forteo was the first anabolic treatment approved for osteoporosis, followed by Tymlos and Evenity. Evenity was approved in the US and Japan this year, and was priced at the same level as Tymlos but a discount of around 50% to Forteo, which is facing imminent generic erosion. However, Evenity comes with an inferior non-vertebral fracture benefit and a boxed warning of cardiovascular risks, which could seriously impact Evenity’s uptake despite the drug’s more convenient administration compared to its competitors (monthly versus daily dosing). Similarly, Tymlos’ clinical profile is not outstanding, as no clear efficacy benefit has been demonstrated over Forteo in clinical trials.
Offering discounts for Tymlos and Evenity is a great tactic to fend off the competition from the upcoming cheaper biosimilar versions of teriparatide and denosumab, which are expected to have a strong uptake over the next 10 years, stealing patient shares from their branded counterparts. However, the lower price may not help Evenity to effectively compete, as the drug’s safety issues may significantly dampen its uptake.”
Information based on GlobalData’s report: Osteoporosis: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2027