Edison Investment Research's report, An intriguing PROSPECT, examines the long-term investment case for Bavarian Nordic, which rests on key value driver Prostvac, its Phase III prostate cancer vaccine.
Prostvac is well positioned to succeed where Provenge, the only approved prostate cancer vaccine, has so far failed. Final data from the pivotal Phase III PROSPECT trial are not due until 2016 but with enrolment on track to complete in H114, there is potential for interim analyses in 2015. PROSPECT data, coupled with read out of two Phase II Xtandi combination studies and an impressive 8.5-month overall survival benefit shown in the Phase II monotherapy trial, should help Bavarian Nordic secure a partner.
Its smallpox vaccine Imvamune is currently the revenue driver, with recurring revenues generated though supplies to the US government. Further orders are expected and new clinical data from 2016 should strengthen its market position, helping Bavarian Nordic towards sustainable and growing profitability.
Edison's healthcare team values the company at DKK2,965m, with potential for further upside.
New research pinpoints key pathways in prostate cancer's vulnerability to ferroptosis