CDC study first to show waning immunity after third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine

A nationwide study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the first to show that immunity against severe COVID-19 disease begins to wane 4 months after receipt of the third dose of an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna). Waning immunity was observed during both the Delta and Omicron variant waves in similar fashion to how mRNA vaccine effectiveness wanes after a second dose. Although protection decreased with time, a third dose was still highly effective at preventing severe illness with COVID-19.

Until this study, little was known about durability of protection following three doses, especially during periods of Delta or Omicron predominance in the U.S.

"The mRNA vaccines, including the booster shot, are very effective, but effectiveness declines over time. Our findings suggest that additional doses may be necessary to maintain protection against COVID-19, especially for high-risk populations," said study co-author Brian Dixon, PhD, MPA, Regenstrief Institute and Indiana University Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health director of public health informatics. "We also found that people who are Hispanic or Black are half as likely to have a third vaccine dose than people who are white, making people who are Hispanic or Black more vulnerable to severe COVID and highlighting the need for public health officials to double down on efforts to protect these vulnerable populations."

According to a CDC dashboard, as of February 8, 2022, among Americans 65 years or older who received a booster dose: 72.3 percent were people who are white, 8.9 percent were people who are Hispanic, and 7.6 percent were people who are Black. The rates among people who are Black or Hispanic are lower than the proportion of those groups with two doses, and these proportions are lower than the percentage of the U.S. population composed of people from those groups, indicating disparities in who has received third doses in the U.S. In the last two weeks, however, higher rates of vaccination have been observed among these minority groups (16.9 percent of recent boosters are among people who are Hispanic; 12.7 percent of recent boosters are among people who are Black). In the study, among patients who are white in the ED/UC, 12 percent had received a third dose compared to 7 percent of patients who are Hispanic and 6 percent of patients who are Black. Similar disparities in third dose administration were observed among those patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19.

Overall, the study reported that individuals with second and third doses of an mRNA vaccine had greater protection against hospitalizations (severe disease) than against emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits (symptoms which may not require hospitalization). Vaccine effectiveness was also lower overall during the Omicron period than during the Delta period.

Vaccine effectiveness against ED/UC visits declined from 97 percent within the first two months of receipt of a booster to 89 percent effectiveness at four months or more during the Delta-predominant period (summer/early fall 2021). During the Omicron-predominant period (late fall 2021/winter 2021-22), vaccine effectiveness against ED/UC visits was 87 percent during the first two months after a third dose, decreasing to 66 percent at four months after a third dose.

After the third dose, protection against Delta variant-associated hospitalization declined from 96 percent within two months to 76 percent after four months or longer. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron variant-associated hospitalizations was 91 percent during the first two months declining to 78 percent at four months.

Our findings confirm the importance of receiving a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine to prevent moderate-to-severe COVID-19 illness, especially among those with comorbidities. That protection conferred by mRNA vaccines waned in the months following a third vaccine dose supports further consideration of booster doses to sustain protection against moderate-to-severe COVID-19 illness."

Shaun Grannis, M.D., M.S., study co-author, vice president for data and analytics, Regenstrief Institute and professor of family medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine

"Waning Effectiveness 2-dose and 3-dose mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance -; VISION Network, 10 States, August 2021–January 2022" is published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The CDC collaborated with six U.S. healthcare systems plus the Regenstrief Institute, to create the VISION network to assess COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. In addition to Regenstrief Institute, other members are Columbia University Irving Medical Center, HealthPartners, Intermountain Healthcare, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Northwest and University of Colorado. Regenstrief contributes data and expertise to the VISION Network.

Authors of the study are from 10 states and 14 institutions, including the public sector, research, clinical and academia. Regenstrief Institute authors, in addition to Drs. Dixon and Grannis, are William F. Fadel, PhD, a Regenstrief fellow; Nimish Ramesh Valvi, DrPH, MBBS, a Regenstrief fellow and Peter J. Embi, M.D., M.S., former Regenstrief president and a current affiliate scientist.


  1. Holly Lentz Holly Lentz United States says:

    It's high time we talk about other ways, like early treatments who's safety profiles are decades proven.

  2. Ryan Waldron Ryan Waldron United States says:

    Give them a week and they will be saying the complete opposite. When you constantly change your story over and over and over again, you loose all credibility....and don't give me the they are learning more with more data BS. They are just blindly reaching and making it up as they go along responding to political and financial pressure....something that scientists should NEVER do, but this pandemic changed all that, sell outs the lot these days.

The opinions expressed here are the views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of News Medical.
Post a new comment

While we only use edited and approved content for Azthena answers, it may on occasions provide incorrect responses. Please confirm any data provided with the related suppliers or authors. We do not provide medical advice, if you search for medical information you must always consult a medical professional before acting on any information provided.

Your questions, but not your email details will be shared with OpenAI and retained for 30 days in accordance with their privacy principles.

Please do not ask questions that use sensitive or confidential information.

Read the full Terms & Conditions.

You might also like...
How did hospitalizations for mental health conditions in children change following the COVID-19 pandemic?