As Britain prepares to phase out tobacco sales for future generations, researchers find a sharp rise in illicit tobacco purchasing that could undermine the policy without stronger enforcement.
Study: Evolving cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco purchasing patterns ahead of smokefree generation legislation in Great Britain: a population study, 2020-2025. Image credit: Yaokaya/Shutterstock.com
Illicit tobacco buying has surged across Great Britain, with younger and more disadvantaged people among the most likely to turn to illegal sources, according to a new study published in Nicotine and Tobacco Research.
Illegal tobacco buying rises ahead of policy changes
The UK government’s Tobacco and Vapes Act 2026 includes the “smokefree generation” policy, with the aim of reducing tobacco use by prohibiting the sale of tobacco products to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. However, the success of this policy largely depends on how and from where people buy tobacco products.
In the UK, tobacco products can be purchased legally from registered online and in-person retailers. Both modes require age verification. Tobacco is heavily taxed, and in recent years, hand-rolled tobacco has generally received larger above-inflation duty increases than factory-made cigarettes, as the government has sought to narrow the tax gap between the two products. These taxes play an important role in reducing smoking rates.
The tobacco tax in the country can be legally avoided by cross-border purchasing, which represents purchasing tobacco products from other countries with low or no duty. This kind of purchasing can avoid UK duty when the products are for personal use and remain within the applicable duty-free allowance, such as fewer than 200 cigarettes or 250 grams of hand-rolling tobacco.
Illicit purchasing, on the other hand, refers to buying tobacco products in the UK that evade duty or other legal requirements, including smuggled, counterfeit, or domestically produced illegal products. These products are substantially cheaper than legal tobacco. Such variation in product prices, as well as the requirement of age verification for legal purchasing, can potentially modulate tobacco purchasing behaviors of UK people, especially those who are under the legal age of buying tobacco or socioeconomically disadvantaged people.
Given the significant impact of tobacco purchasing behavior on the success of the UK’s smokefree generation policy, researchers at University College London recently examined cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco purchasing trends and patterns by age, socioeconomic position, vaping status, and nation.
The researchers analyzed data from selected waves of a representative monthly cross-sectional survey conducted in Great Britain between October 2020 and April 2025. A total of 9966 current smokers aged 16 years or above were included in the study, who reported sources of purchasing cigarettes or hand-rolling tobacco in the past 6 months.
Younger smokers rely more on illegal supplies
The analysis of participants’ responses revealed that the majority (91%) buy cigarettes or hand-rolling tobacco from domestic in-person retail sources. Online purchasing was rare among participants. The proportions of participants who reported cross-border purchasing and illicit purchasing were similar (14%).
Regarding purchasing trends over time, the analysis showed that domestic in-person retail purchasing remains the most common source throughout the study period. However, the prevalence declined slightly over time.
Cross-border purchasing increased substantially, reaching 33% in 2025, while the prevalence of illicit purchasing nearly doubled between mid-2023 and 2025, rising from about 12% to 23%. Illicit purchasing was more common among younger participants, socioeconomically disadvantaged participants, and those who also vaped. By contrast, cross-border purchasing was more common among socioeconomically advantaged participants.
Illegal tobacco could undermine future smoking restrictions
The study reveals that although domestic in-person retail purchasing remained the most common source of buying cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco among people aged 16 years or above, illicit purchasing increased markedly after mid-2023 in Great Britain. Across the study period, illicit purchasing was particularly common among younger people, socioeconomically disadvantaged people, and those who both smoked and vaped.
These findings highlight the need for sustained investment in enforcement before the implementation of the proposed smokefree generation policy. The increased reliance on illegal supply routes could undermine the effectiveness of the smokefree generation policy by weakening reductions in legal access to tobacco if appropriate actions are not taken.
Based on the study findings, the researchers estimated that approximately 2 million people in Great Britain purchased cross-border tobacco and 1.6 million purchased illicit tobacco between November 2024 and April 2025. These figures reflect the prevalence of purchasing among people who smoke and reported their source of purchase, not total market consumption.
The increased prevalence of illicit purchasing may represent a shift in purchasing pattern rather than a definitive increase in the overall size of the illicit market. Similarly, the increased prevalence of cross-border purchasing may reflect greater opportunities to buy duty-free tobacco following the return of international travel after the COVID-19 pandemic and the extension of duty-free purchasing after the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, rather than necessarily indicating a change in consumer preference.
Future tobacco controls depend on effective enforcement
Overall, the observed shifts in purchasing patterns highlight a potential gap in tobacco control efforts that focus primarily on domestic purchases. Tobacco control policy should invest more in cross-border surveillance and customs enforcement and take action against domestic illicit supply networks.
Although online purchasing was less commonly reported by study participants, its usage was higher among young adults. Furthermore, several major supermarkets in the UK sell tobacco products through online grocery services for home delivery. People buying tobacco through these services may report their source as “supermarket” rather than “online,” which may lead to an underestimation of the prevalence of online purchasing. Since online platforms are difficult to regulate, more efforts are needed to monitor and restrict online tobacco sales.
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