Study compares shifting pancreatic cancer burdens in the United States and China

Pancreatic cancer remains one of the deadliest malignancies worldwide, carrying a five-year survival rate of roughly 10% and a heavy toll in disability-adjusted life years. Understanding how its burden and risk factors are shifting across countries is essential for prevention and health planning. 

A new study published in the Journal of Pancreatology on August 7, 2026, compared pancreatic cancer burden in China and the United States from 1990 to 2023 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Researchers analyzed incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), alongside socioeconomic inequalities and attributable risk factors. 

In 2023, China recorded more absolute cases than the United States (103,000 vs. 66,000), yet its age-standardized rates were lower: prevalence was 4.51 versus 11.19, and mortality was 4.97 versus 9.56 per 100,000 people. From 1990 to 2023, the absolute burden of pancreatic cancer grew in both countries, though age-standardized DALYs declined slightly in China (-0.15%) while increasing in the United States (0.12%). The burden peaked at ages 60–74 in China and shifted to older ages (70–84) in the United States. 

A striking finding was the shift in risk factors. High fasting plasma glucose surpassed tobacco use as the leading attributable risk factor in the United States; in China, it has become a major contributor, comparable to tobacco use-highlighting the growing importance of metabolic risk management in pancreatic cancer prevention. The global burden also remained concentrated in regions with a high socio-demographic index, while absolute socioeconomic inequality increased over time. 

The authors conclude that tailored, country-specific prevention strategies-particularly those addressing rising metabolic risk factors-will be essential to curb the growing burden of pancreatic cancer in the coming decades.