Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) drug market in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan will fluctuate modestly over the next decade, decreasing from $5 billion in 2009 to a trough in 2013 before climbing to $4.1 billion in 2019. An expanding drug-treated population and increasing use of new therapies through 2019 will be unable to fully counter the steep losses caused by the generic erosion of the blockbuster psychostimulants—Shire's Adderall XR and McNeil Pediatrics/Janssen-Cilag's Concerta/Concerta XL.
The findings from the Pharmacor topic entitled Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder reveal that, by 2019, Shire's Vyvanse will be only the third blockbuster agent in the ADHD market to date, garnering nearly $1.4 billion across the world's major pharmaceutical markets. The continued uptake of Vyvanse is due in part to the drug's lower abuse potential when compared to that of other first-line psychostimulants as well as its expansion into European markets. The widespread use of Vyvanse and other products in Shire's portfolio will help secure the company's dominance in the ADHD market, where it will hold a commanding 41 percent market share in 2019.
In Europe, where physicians report greater sensitivity to the risk of abuse associated with psychostimulants than do their U.S. counterparts, the non-stimulant guanfacine extended release (Shire's Intuniv) is expected to play a more significant role in drug treatment. Intuniv, which is forecasted to launch in Europe in 2014, will capture a moderate patient share across the European markets and account for nearly 25 percent of total ADHD market sales in that region in 2019.
The findings also reveal that the pediatric ADHD subpopulation, which has been diagnosed for decades, is reasonably well served by a variety of available products and is likely approaching a drug-treatment ceiling, whereas drug developers have more recently begun to target adult ADHD as the commercial future of this market.
"Improved diagnosis and treatment of adult ADHD will help sustain market growth from 2013 to 2019, thanks to increased patient self-referrals, improved diagnostic criteria, newer and safer agents and growing professional acceptance," said Decision Resources Analyst Andrea Buurma. "Nevertheless, with only a minority of prevalent adult cases diagnosed in 2019, ample opportunity will remain in this underserved subpopulation."