A comprehensive global analysis reveals how non-native mosquito vectors are hitchhiking across continents via shipping, tourism, and trade, pinpointing the regions where prevention and early detection could have the greatest impact.
Study: Global invasion patterns and dynamics of disease vector mosquitoes. Image Credit: GE_4530 / Shutterstock
In a recent study published in the journal Nature Communications, a group of researchers mapped when, where, and how non-native disease-vector mosquitoes were introduced and established globally, and identified pathways, hotspots, and socio-environmental drivers.
Background
Nearly one quarter of mosquito species that transmit human pathogens now occur beyond their native ranges, a stark signal of how trade, travel, and urbanization reshape risk. Introduced vectors such as Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, and Culex quinquefasciatus enable dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and other arthropod-borne viruses to surface in new places, while local outbreaks increasingly follow warm summers. The earlier reference to “heavy tourism” was removed because it was not analyzed in the study. For health systems already stretched by climate-sensitive diseases, unexpected autochthonous transmission can trigger costly responses. Communities care because prevention hinges on knowing where vectors arrive, how they persist, and which gateways matter. Further research must resolve pathways and socio-environmental drivers. This study does not analyze disease incidence or tourism; it does model socio-environmental drivers of introduction and establishment hotspots.
About the study
The study compiled a global database of first records of non-native mosquito vectors of human disease and whether those populations established. Sources included peer-reviewed literature and reviews; dates were standardized to four-digit years with transparent rules for approximate periods. Records were assigned to 477 regions (countries plus major subnational units) to track introductions consistently using the Database of Global Administrative Areas (GADM). Transportation vectors were classified as ships, aircraft, ground transport, trains, or secondary spread; contaminants included water containers, plants, tires, lucky bamboo, used machinery, containers, and assorted goods, summarized in 25-year intervals. Many transport modes were recorded as unknown, reflecting gaps in reporting. Species identity and certainty were recorded. Spatial spread was characterized with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), followed by k-means clustering to group species by range size and distance among invaded regions.
Continental flows linked native regions to destinations to depict donor-recipient patterns. To identify hot- and coldspots, a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) related first-record counts per country to area and a proxy for recording effort, with continent as a random effect. Drivers of hotspot intensity were modeled using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population size, temperature, precipitation, wetlands and agriculture, insularity, and latitude. Analyses were conducted in R, and maps were created in QGIS.
Study results
Across 184 recognized mosquito vectors of human disease, the database captured 697 first records in 288 regions and, notably, 612 records (87.8%) led to establishment. In total, 45 species - 24.5% of known vectors - were introduced somewhere, and 28 were established. Five genera dominated introductions: Aedes, Anopheles, Culex, Armigeres, and Mansonia. Aedes accounted for 469 regional introductions and now has ten species established in 409 regions. Culex contributed 192 introductions, with 9 species established across 184 regions. Anopheles were introduced in 33 regions, with seven species established in 17 regions, while Armigeres and Mansonia each had single-species introductions with limited establishment. The most widespread non-native species were Aedes aegypti (192 regions), Aedes albopictus (189), and Culex quinquefasciatus (111), with Aedes albopictus established in 173 regions.
Temporal trends revealed a sharp post-1950 rise: 49% of all first records occurred after 1950, and 12 species were first recorded outside their native range after 2000. The mode of movement diversified from ship-dominated dispersal to increasing roles for aircraft, ground transport, and unaided secondary spread from initial bridgeheads. Commodities implicated shifted from standing-water containers on ships to used tires, ornamental plants (including lucky bamboo), and assorted containerized goods. Establishment odds after air travel were low, whereas shipping remained a major contributor even as its relative importance declined.
Spatial analyses showed that species occupying more regions generally had longer global residence times; however, that correlation weakened for species emerging after 1900 and 1950, signaling different dynamics for recent invaders. PCA and k-means clustering grouped species into four patterns: cosmopolitan spreaders (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Culex quinquefasciatus); widespread invaders spanning many regions or large distances (for example, Aedes japonicus, Culex pipiens sensu stricto, Culex tritaeniorhynchus); medium-range colonizers (including Anopheles stephensi); and numerous narrow-range species introduced to one or two regions. Intercontinental flows highlighted Asia and Africa as dominant donors, with Europe, North America, and Australia as consistent recipients. After 1900, Asia became the primary donor, and intracontinental movements are evident in Australia and the Americas.
Hotspot analysis identified New Zealand, the Netherlands, the United States of America (USA), France, and Mauritius as introduction hotspots, while Guam, multiple eastern USA states, and Cuba ranked among establishment hotspots. Coldspots included the Cook Islands, Norway, Poland, Ukraine, and Canada. GLMMs indicated that GDP per capita and population size were positively associated with introductions, and that population size was positively associated with establishment, with insularity also increasing introduction propensity.
Conclusions
This global synthesis shows that introductions and establishments of non-native mosquito vectors are rising, diversifying in pathways, and concentrating in predictable hotspots. For public health, the signal is actionable: target pathway management like shipping containers, used tires, and live plants, intensify surveillance at hotspots, and fund rapid response before incursions scale. Planning should look beyond Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to other competent vectors, while integrating land use, climate, trade, and travel data. Coordinated international efforts can reduce introductions and blunt the disease burden of arboviruses and malaria in an increasingly connected world.
Journal reference:
- Pabst, R., Sousa, C. A., Essl, F., García-Rodríguez, A., Liu, D., Lenzner, B., Schertler, A., Zêzere, J. L., & Capinha, C. (2025). Global invasion patterns and dynamics of disease vector mosquitoes. Nature Communications, 16. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64446-3