Lessons from COVID-19 could help communities better prepare for the next pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided researchers with a wealth of information on contemporary successes and failures in combating an emerging pathogen. This study outlines a total of 22 opportunities and strategies based on urban functionality and typology to help communities better prepare for and mitigate the effects of the next pandemic.

Global pandemics have occurred throughout human history, including the bubonic plague, Spanish flu and COVID-19. While the viruses and other infectious agents that cause pandemics vary, one fact remains constant: Another pandemic will occur, and no one can predict exactly when it will happen.

Professor Ayyoob Sharifi at Hiroshima University and Borhan Sepehri at Tarbiat Modares University recently outlined ways that communities can leverage the lessons from COVID-19 to better prepare for future pandemics from emerging pathogens such as the monkeypox virus (Mpox). The study was published in the September 8 online issue of the journal Cities.

Today's advances in healthcare have lowered the risk of some new infectious agents, like bacteria, that may be susceptible to existing antibiotics. Likewise, there are many antiviral and other treatments available that are effective against known viruses, fungi and parasites that may have at least some effectiveness against new pathogens. 

Despite our current armament of medical treatments, however, pathogens continue to evolve. Bacteria can acquire genes that defeat the latest and greatest antibiotics and viruses acquire the ability to infect new hosts, including humans. And while medieval society did not have the same medical treatments to combat quickly spreading pathogens that we have today, transportation methods were much slower and limited how quickly a new virus or microbe could spread worldwide. 

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has provided epidemiologists with an excellent case study to better understand how the integration of various factors, including urbanization, climate change and economics, affected the response to the pandemic. 

This study addresses the critical question of how cities can enhance their resilience to future pandemics… [and] emphasizes the importance of tailoring urban planning, design and management strategies to diverse urban typologies, including low-income and informal settlements, to ensure equitable and effective pandemic preparedness. This is important because pandemics are expected to occur more frequently, and cities must adopt adaptable, inclusive and contextually relevant measures to mitigate their impacts and safeguard public health."

Ayyoob Sharifi, professor at The IDEC Institute & Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS) at Hiroshima University and co-author of the research paper

The team collected 30 important COVID-19 studies rated by Methodi Ordinatio, a methodology used to rank scientific papers, to identify 44 lessons from the pandemic that the team could subsequently classify into 24 categories. The authors outlined a total of 22 opportunities and strategies based on urban functionality and typology to help communities better prepare for and mitigate the effects of the next pandemic.

Some of the key urban planning strategies the researchers recommend include developing healthy and affordable residential neighborhoods and improving the quality of life and health in slums and informal settlements. Additionally, the team recommends leveraging big data analysis and smart tools, powered by artificial intelligence, in urban management to develop faster, more appropriate responses to unexpected phenomena.

"Cities must proactively enhance their resilience to future pandemics by integrating lessons learned from COVID-19 into urban planning, design, and management. … However, these strategies must be contextually adapted to different urban typologies, as a one-size-fits-all approach may exacerbate inequalities or unintended risks, such as increased virus transmission in high-density areas. By focusing on adaptability, inclusivity, and multi-functionality, cities can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of emerging health threats like Mpox," said Sharifi.

Importantly, the framework outlined by the study must be tailored to each urban area to maximize preparedness and more effectively battle the next emerging pathogen.

"The ultimate goal is to create resilient cities that can effectively mitigate the impacts of future pandemics like Mpox by addressing socioeconomic gaps, leveraging smart technologies and promoting sustainable urban planning, design and management practices. Further research and collaboration among urban experts are essential to contextualize these strategies and address evolving health threats," said Sharifi.

Borhan Sepehri is affiliated with the Department of Urban Planning & Design at Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran, Iran.