New national estimates reveal historic gains in cancer survival and millions of deaths averted, while exposing stark inequities and warning that policy decisions today could determine whether progress continues or stalls.
Study: Cancer statistics, 2026. Image credit: Yuganov Konstantin/Shutterstock.com
The American Cancer Society (ACS) has published the 2026 cancer statistics in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, covering new cancer cases and deaths in the United States.
The compiled report highlights significant improvements in cancer outcomes in recent years, even for the most fatal malignancies, while noting that progress has been uneven across cancer types and populations.
National cancer burden shaped by progress and persistent gaps
Cancer is the leading cause of death among people younger than 85 years, and the second-leading cause of death overall in the United States. Although cancer mortality has reduced significantly in the country, several challenges still exist.
Such challenges include increasing occurrence of common cancers, persistent socioeconomic, racial, and ethnic inequalities, and a potential increase in advanced-stage diagnoses due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic-related delays in detection.
This 2026 report provides estimates of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States, as well as a comprehensive overview of cancer incidence and mortality, by compiling the most recent population-based cancer incidence and mortality data collected by central cancer registries and the National Center for Health Statistics.
The authors emphasize that these national estimates are model-based projections and should not be used to track year-to-year cancer trends, as observed incidence and mortality trends rely on delayed, finalized registry data.
Cancer survival reaches historic highs across stages
The study predictions indicate that approximately 2,114,850 new cancer cases and 626,140 cancer deaths will occur in the United States in 2026. These estimates are equivalent to about 5800 cases and 1720 deaths per day.
For all cancers, the 5-year survival increased from 49 % during the mid-1970s to 70 % during 2015–2021. For regional-stage cancers, survival increased from 54 % during the mid-1990s to 69 % during 2015–2021. For distant-stage cancers, survival increased from 17 % to 35 % during the same period. Survival was highest for thyroid, prostate, testis, and skin cancers, and lowest for lung, liver, esophagus, and pancreatic cancers, with pancreatic cancer continuing to show particularly limited survival gains despite recent advances.
The highest survival benefits were observed for patients with high-mortality cancers and advanced-stage cancers. Between the mid-1990s and 2015–2021, 5-year survival increased from 32 % to 62 % for myeloma, from 7 % to 22 % for liver cancer, from 16 % to 35 % for metastatic melanoma, from 8 % to 18 % for metastatic rectal cancer, from 20 % to 37 % for regional lung cancer, and from 2 % to 10 % for metastatic lung cancer, reflecting the impact of targeted therapies, immunotherapies, and improved treatment delivery.
Regarding cancer mortality, the study found an increase during most of the 20th century, which might be due to the rapid increase in lung cancer incidence among men as a consequence of excessive tobacco smoking. According to the predictions, lung cancer will cause more deaths in 2026, compared to the second-ranking colorectal cancer and third-ranking pancreatic cancer combined, reinforcing its continued dominance as the leading cause of cancer death.
However, a 34 % reduction in the overall cancer mortality rate from 1991 through 2023 was observed, which could be attributed to reduced smoking rates, earlier detection, and therapeutic advancement, with the relative contribution of these factors varying by cancer type and population. This reduction in cancer mortality has prevented 4.8 million deaths since 1991.
Racial and ethnic inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality
The highest rates of cancer incidence and mortality were observed among American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) people overall and in women. Conversely, Black men had the highest sex-specific rates. The authors caution that misclassification of race and ethnicity in cancer surveillance data may lead to underestimation of cancer burden in some populations, particularly among AIAN people, and that aggregated racial and ethnic categories can mask important subgroup differences.
The disproportionate mortality burden in AIAN people might be due to the highest death rates for kidney, liver, stomach, and cervical cancers compared to White people. High mortality rates in Black men might be attributed to 2–4-fold higher prostate cancer mortality rates compared to all other men. These cancer inequalities are largely attributed to a higher prevalence of risk factors, medical mistrust, structural and socioeconomic barriers, and lack of insurance, which limit access to high-quality health care, including timely diagnosis and optimal treatment.
Lower survival rates were observed among Black people compared to White people for nearly every cancer type. The largest contributor to this gap is reduced access to high-quality care. The study also highlights the roles of unconscious bias and unequal treatment delivery in widening survival gaps. Lack of diversity in clinical trials further contributes to racial and ethnic disparities in cancer treatment, potentially limiting the generalizability of clinical advances. Existing evidence indicates that Asian, Black, and Hispanic people are less likely to receive a physician recommendation for cancer screening and recommended germline genetic testing.
Cancer in children and adolescents
Cancer is the second most common cause of death among children aged 1–14 years and the fourth most common cause of death among adolescents aged 15–19 years. Approximately 9680 and 5660 cancer cases, and 1090 and 730 cancer deaths, are predicted to occur among children and adolescents, respectively, in 2026 in the United States.
Unlike incidence rates, childhood cancer mortality has reduced significantly from 6 per 100,000 in 1970 to 2 per 100,000 in 2023. Among adolescents, mortality decreased from 7 per 100,000 in 1970 to 3 per 100,000 in 2023, reflecting decades of therapeutic progress and improvements in supportive care.
In childhood cancer, long-term survivors frequently experience severe treatment-related health adversities with aging. A threefold higher overall mortality risk has been observed among 7500 childhood cancer survivors aged 50 years or older compared to the general population. This excess mortality is largely driven by subsequent cancers and late effects of prior cancer treatment, particularly radiation therapy, highlighting survivorship as an emerging public health priority and the need for appropriate long-term care plans.
Take-home message
By analyzing high-quality, population-based cancer registry data, the study provides a valid estimate of the contemporary cancer burden. The findings indicate a significant reduction in mortality and improvement in survival among people with even the most fatal cancers, while emphasizing that gains have not been uniform across all cancers or demographic groups. These improvements are largely due to decades of scientific investment and resulting diagnostic and therapeutic advancements.
However, the authors raise concern about proposed federal cuts to cancer research and health insurance, which could hinder continued progress and limit access to life-saving cancer treatment, particularly for populations already experiencing a disproportionate cancer burden.
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