275% rise in dementia cases for Australia over next 40 years: Study

By Dr. Ananya Mandal, MDMay 19 2010

According to an Access Economics study commissioned by the Alzheimer’s Australia the number of Victorian dementia patients will quadruple in the next 40 years. At present the figures stand at 66,000 and are expected to touch 246,000 in 2050. The rise is an alarming 275% and is fueled by population growth, reduced physical activity, and an increasingly ageing population. Alzheimer’s Australia warns Victorian Health authorities to start planning for measures to curb the epidemic.

According to Alzheimer's Australia CEO Lynette Moore those who are in their sixties this year will be in the high risk group in another 40 years. The risk increases greatly once a person is aged over 70, research says. At present Ms Moore believes there is an urgent need for more funds for all stages of the disease from diagnosis to care and prevention. She said, “We need to fund dementia now for the future, into the care, research and promotion of risk reduction.” She said funds to the tune of $12 million a year was needed for dementia initiatives in Victoria. Alzheimer's Australia last year gave estimates of an extra $1 billion over the next five years to tackle the “dementia epidemic”.

The study assessed the number of dementia sufferers in local government areas. Greater Geelong topped the list closely followed by the Mornington Peninsula. Ms Moore pointed out that these figures reflected the population in these areas. Even Melbourne outskirts will be high in dementia cases by 2030 to 2050 she said. The report also says that rise of cases in Melton and Wyndham, in the west, will be in the tune of 833% and 623%, respectively. Cardinia in the east will see a 683% rise while Melbourne will experience a 643%. The most affected areas will be the metropolitan cities but rural and regional areas will not be spared since these areas have a huge elderly population.

Access Economics Director Lynne Pezzullo said, “For Victoria, it means a need to plan services particularly in areas where there's going to be a particularly high rise in dementia prevalence.”