EvaluatePharma, the premier provider of pharmaceutical and biotech
analysis including consensus forecasts, today released its World Preview
2018 report, providing an in-depth look at how the patent cliff will
reshape the drug industry over the next six years — with valuable
insight into which companies and products will come out as winners.
The market for prescription drugs, based on the consensus forecast for
the leading 500 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, will grow by
3.1 percent per year between 2011 and 2018 to reach $885 billion,
according to World Preview 2018.
EvaluatePharma's analysis shows that more than $290 billion of
prescription drug sales are at risk from patent expirations during that
time frame. As companies have worked to rebuild their pipeline, the
pharmaceutical industry has spent $1.1 trillion over the last 10 years
on research and development, according to the report.
"It is often said there is an R&D productivity issue, but is it just
poor portfolio strategy and investment choices? Is too much money being
spent chasing too few quality R&D projects?" asks Anthony Raeside, Head
of Research. "The patent cliff in its own right may not be the problem,
but rather the way management reacts to it."
The World Preview 2018 report will be officially released at the 2012
BIO International Convention, held June 18-21 in Boston. A hard-copy
Executive Summary of World Preview 2018 will be available at
EvaluatePharma's Booth 1421, and the report is available for download at www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.
In addition to assessing forecast trends in prescription drug sales and
R&D spending, World Preview 2018 also looks at therapy area growth and
the performance of marketed and pipeline products. Among this year's key
In the race to become the top pharmaceutical company, in terms of
total prescription drug sales, Novartis will emerge as a clear leader
in 2018, with sales forecast to reach $51.3 billion by that year.
That's $3 billion ahead of its closest competitors, Pfizer and Sanofi.
Gilead Sciences is set to climb the most positions within the top 20,
moving up seven places to number 15 with prescription sales of $15.1
billion in 2018, thanks in large part to the company's strong HIV
franchise and impressive forecasts for GS-7977, its recently acquired
development stage hepatitis C product.
Looking at which products will top the sales charts, Merck & Co.'s
Type 2 diabetes therapy franchise, Januvia/Janumet, will reign. The
franchise is forecast to be the largest global brand in 2018, with
sales forecast showing a 10 percent compound annual growth rate
between 2011 and 2018 to reach $9.7 billion in sales.
Gilead's potential new hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977 —
forecast to achieve $5.4 billion in sales in 2018 — is the highest
ranked R&D product in 2018. The second-highest ranked product
currently in R&D is Biogen Idec's oral multiple sclerosis agent,
BG-12, which is expected to reach $3.4 billion in sales in 2018.
In this year's report, EvaluatePharma has added, for the first time, a
geographic analysis looking at the performance of the U.S., Europe and
Japan pharmaceutical markets in 2011. The analysis reveals major market
growth flatlining in 2011, with little or no growth in the U.S., a
decline in Europe, and modest growth in Japan.