New report calls for urgent transformation of UK food system by 2050

Rapid and urgent action on food is needed if the UK is to reboot its flagging economy, save the NHS billions, ensure national food security, and meet climate commitments, according to a new report.

The Roadmap for Resilience: A UK Food Plan for 2050, calls for radical transformation, at a scale and pace not seen since the Second World War. It says if we do not act now, change will be forced upon us by increasing pressures and the UK will lurch from crisis to crisis, including from food price shocks, climate disasters and weakening economic productivity.

Acting now however, allows the UK to decide its own future, and must include three core transformations: more resilient farming, smarter land use, and healthier diets. Government must take the lead with "decisive and coordinated action", says the report, and proposes 10 key recommendations and a timeline to 2050.

The report is published as renewed attention is being given to global food system transformation, including through the EAT-Lancet Commission's latest report released earlier this month.

"Achieving this transformation has the power to deliver a food system where everyone in the UK has access to healthy and sustainable food," said Neil Ward, Co-lead of the Agri-Food for Net Zero (AFN) Network+, which coordinated the report, and a professor at the University of East Anglia (UEA). 

"Through these three transformations we can reduce pressure on the NHS and help people lead healthier and more economically active lives. Nature will flourish, emissions will fall and farming will be more resilient and secure for future generations," he said.

"Pressures from climate change, global shocks and poor diets mean significant change to our food system is inevitable over the next 50 years. However, if we act now, we still have time to shape our future, and positively impact national security, national health, economic growth and climate change. Our window to act is narrow though – if we do not, change will be forced on us by crisis," added Professor Ward.

The report had input from 150 scientists and industry professionals from across research institutes, farming, charities and the food industry, and is the culmination of three years of work by the AFN Network+, a project funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), with 3,000 members and led by a group of 11 universities and research institutes.

A system under pressure

The report highlights that the UK food system is a significant source of national greenhouse gas emissions and will become the largest source of emissions by the 2040s. Meanwhile, poor diets cost the economy £268 billion a year in direct healthcare costs as well as indirect costs such as low economic activity, and 7.2 million people now live in food-insecure households – an increase of 80% in just three years. Adding to these challenges, the UK is vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, since it is dependent on imports for 50% of vegetables and 85% of fruit, despite these being essential to healthy diets.

Transformation across three key areas

The Roadmap calls for transformation in three key areas:

• Stronger, more resilient farming: Supporting farmers to adapt to climate change, diversify business and grow more fruit, vegetables and wholegrains, reducing the need for imports.
• Smarter, more integrated land use: Expanding woodland cover from 14% to at least 20% of UK land by 2050, restoring peatlands and planning land use regionally to balance food, nature and climate.
• Healthier diets made easier: Making nutritious, sustainable food the easy and affordable option, while reducing reliance on imported and high-emission foods.

Urgent actions for government

The authors set out 10 priority actions, urging the government to work in partnership with farmers, food companies and local authorities. These include:

• Place food security on a par with energy security, equally essential to national security
• Set targets for dietary change and livestock numbers
• Create a National Food System Transformation Committee reporting to the Prime Minister
• Further reform agricultural subsidies to prioritise emissions reduction and carbon sequestration, alongside sustainable production and biodiversity

Tim Benton, Co-lead of the AFN Network+ and a professor at the University of Leeds, said: "Every year of delay makes transformation harder and more costly. We call on all parties, public institutions, industry and civil society to unite to drive forwards the transformations highlighted in this Roadmap. Change is coming to our food system, but how we shape it is our choice to make."

Professor Charlotte Deane, Executive Chair of UKRI's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, said: "Agri-food remains one of the UK's most stubborn sources of emissions.

"The AFN Network+ has brought together a powerful community of research leaders and stakeholders across UK agri-food, third sector organisations, policymakers and agri-food industry professionals to tackle this challenge and now delivered a clear roadmap for change.

"Our investment has resulted in a legacy of insights which will help shape future land use and food strategy, supporting the UK's path to net zero."

The Roadmap for Resilience: A UK Food Plan for 2050 was developed by the AFN Network+, drawing on insights from across its community of more than 3,000 members. The AFN Network+ is jointly led by UEA, the University of Leeds, University of York, and the University of the West of England.