Florida study finds elevated traffic fatality rates during spring break

On any given U.S. holiday, traffic crashes claim more than 500 lives. But according to a new study published in Risk Analysis, the real danger lurks early in the annual calendar. The spring break window (from late February through early April) carries a significantly higher traffic fatality and injury risk than the Thanksgiving to New Year's Day holiday stretch, and every other period of the year. 

Researchers Dr. Michael T. French, professor and chair of the Department of Health Management and Policy at the University of Miami, and Dr. Gulcin Gumus, associate professor in the Department of Management Programs at Florida Atlantic University, analyzed 12 years of county-level crash data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, covering all of the state's 67 counties between 2011 and 2022. The dataset totaled more than 42,000 observations. 

Florida was selected as the research area due to its high population, tourism economy and popularity as a holiday hotspot. Traffic fatalities in the state also consistently outpace US nationwide averages, making it an important and consequential case study.

Motor vehicle crashes tend to be one of the more obscure costs of spring break. Our findings suggest the true burden on Florida communities is likely far greater than what shows up in crash data alone."

Dr. Gulcin Gumus, Associate Professor, Department of Management Programs, Florida Atlantic University

The research shows that across all measures of injury; spring break is a significantly more dangerous time of year to travel compared to other popular periods. Fatalities, non-fatal injuries and serious non-fatal injuries were all elevated during spring break, while the Thanksgiving through New Year's Day period showed a comparable rise in fatalities but no significant increase in overall non-fatal injuries. Non-fatal injuries in crashes involving younger drivers were actually lower during the holiday period.

Young drivers (age 25 and under), out-of-state drivers and non-motorists, such as pedestrians and cyclists, all faced elevated risks during spring break, with fatal and non-fatal injury rates estimated to be 10–15% above baseline. The risks were especially pronounced for crashes involving out-of-state drivers, where fatal and non-fatal injury counts were up to 37% higher during spring break. 

Alcohol-related crashes did not show a statistically significant spike compared to other crash types during spring break, suggesting that traffic volume and driver unfamiliarity with local roads may be more significant factors than intoxication alone. The risks were highest along Florida's coast but extended to surrounding landlocked counties through connecting travel corridors.

The researchers argue the findings should prompt a rethinking of how states approach peak-season traffic policy. 

"This research shows that targeting drunk driving alone is not the best strategy," said Dr. French. "Density management may be a better policy lever. Mitigation strategies like expanding public transportation options and increasing safety enforcement on the roads during spring break could be more effective."

Recent measures implemented in Miami Beach, including DUI checkpoints, greater police presence and pedestrian protection zones, reflect the kind of coordinated approach the researchers recommend.