Study offers insight into why U.S. traffic fatalities remain high

Vision Zero begins with a simple but powerful premise: No loss of life on the transportation system is acceptable. Despite the ambitious nature of this goal, the United States has made little meaningful progress toward its realization. 

Traffic fatalities in the U.S. remain unchanged since 2000, with about 40,000 deaths each year from motor vehicle crashes. But the distribution of those deaths has shifted sharply. Over that period, pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities have increased by 68%.

Today, people walking and biking make up 1 in 5 traffic deaths – and per mile traveled – they are about 30 times more likely to be killed than people in motor vehicles. Of the more than 50 jurisdictions that have adopted Vision Zero program, only New York has reported a net reduction in deaths and injuries.

U.S. road safety research has often pointed to arterial street design – such as higher speeds and wider lanes – as a key reason vulnerable road users are at greater risk. While design is part of the picture, this explanation is incomplete.

Researchers at Florida Atlantic University are now challenging this long-standing assumption, offering new insight into why the U.S. has struggled to make meaningful progress in reducing – and ultimately eliminating – traffic fatalities.

To address this urgent public issue in Florida and across the nation, the researchers analyzed 222 miles of arterial highways across Florida. Focusing on 10 urban arterials in the Miami, Orlando and Tampa regions, they examined pedestrian and bicyclist injury crashes. Using Florida Department of Transportation data and satellite imagery, the researchers evaluated corridor segments and signalized intersections separately, resulting in a dataset of 334 segments and 489 intersections.

Results of the study, published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, show that where everyday places like grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations and fast-food restaurants are built can significantly increase the risk of serious injury or death for pedestrians and cyclists. By placing these essential destinations along busy, high-speed roads, current planning practices put people in harm's way – turning already dangerous road designs into deadly environments.

These environments are fundamentally incompatible with safe walking and biking. In contrast, countries like Sweden, Germany and the United Kingdom restrict this type of development, contributing to significantly lower fatality rates.

This research changes how we think about traffic safety in ways that matter for the public, policymakers and local governments. Traffic deaths are often treated as isolated incidents or engineering problems, but our findings show they are also shaped by how communities are planned and developed. That insight is especially important in a fast-growing state like Florida, where growth, safety and community design are closely linked."

Eric Dumbaugh, Ph.D., senior author and professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning within FAU's Charles E. Schmidt College of Science

The researchers explain that there are two main ways to improve safety: redesign arterial roads or rethink land use. While redesigning streets (e.g., lowering speeds, reducing lanes) could help, the vast scale of the U.S. arterial network makes this costly and difficult.

"The problem with this approach is that there are 178,000 miles of urban arterial streets in the U.S., an extent that is more than three times the length of the nation's Interstate Highway System," said Dumbaugh. "While it may not be necessary to redesign the entire system, even modifying a small portion would be a major undertaking, requiring a significant reallocation of capital resources and a fundamental shift in political will."

Alternatively, focusing on land use – since it shapes where and how people travel – offers a more practical approach, though it is often overlooked in road safety discussions.

The findings also identify a timely opportunity: many retail corridors along arterials are aging, overbuilt and facing declining demand. This creates favorable conditions for repurposing or relocating these uses to safer, more accessible areas. Tools such as zoning updates, overlay districts and revised traffic impact analyses could help prevent unsafe redevelopment and promote walkable, community-oriented design.

"Meaningful progress toward Vision Zero requires recognizing that land use decisions are a key driver of pedestrian and bicyclist risk," said Dumbaugh. "When everyday destinations are placed along high-speed arterial roads, they create avoidable exposure to danger. Addressing this will require rethinking zoning and site design standards and steering high-risk uses away from these corridors before they are built into the landscape."

The study underscores the need for collaboration among planners, policymakers and developers to align land development decisions with safety goals – paving the way for a transportation system where no loss of life is accepted.

"Safety is not just about how streets are designed – it's about how communities are built," said Dumbaugh. "If the U.S. is serious about achieving zero deaths, land use planning must become central to the solution."

Study co-author is Jonathan Stiles, Ph.D., a post-doctoral researcher in FAU's Department of Urban and Regional Planning. 

This research was supported in part by grants from the Florida Department of Transportation and the Collaborative Sciences Center for Road Safety.