Liver cancer burden rising globally amid shift to metabolic risks

Primary liver cancer continues to pose a major global health challenge, ranking as the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Despite advances in treatment and prevention, both incidence and mortality remain alarmingly high, with nearly 870,000 new cases reported in 2022 alone. Hepatocellular carcinoma accounts for nearly 80% of these cases. Notably, China accounts for over 40% of the global burden, reflecting both historical exposure to viral hepatitis and emerging lifestyle-related risks. Increasingly, researchers are observing a critical epidemiological transition-from infectious causes such as hepatitis B and C to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a condition linked to obesity, diabetes, and metabolic disorders.

Addressing this challenge, a research team was led by Professor Jian Zhou and Dr. Ao Huang, from the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation at the Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, China, along with Professor Dan G. Duda from the Steele Laboratories for Tumor Biology, Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, USA. The team conducted a comprehensive analysis using global cancer databases, including GLOBOCAN 2022 and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, integrating epidemiological, demographic, and etiological risk factor data to identify key trends and drivers of liver cancer worldwide and in China. The findings were first published online on March 27, 2026, and later published in Volume 5, Issue 1 of Portal Hypertension & Cirrhosis on March 31, 2026.

The study reveals that while age-standardized incidence and mortality rates have shown slight declines over recent decades, the absolute number of cases is projected to rise dramatically, reaching over 1.5 million annually by 2050 if current trends persist. This increase is largely driven by the growing prevalence of MASLD, which is emerging as a major contributor alongside traditional causes such as hepatitis infections. Although widespread hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapies have successfully reduced virus-related liver cancer rates, metabolic risk factors, including obesity, diabetes, poor diet, and physical inactivity, are rapidly becoming dominant drivers.

At the same time, the study highlights striking disparities across regions and populations. Higher incidence and mortality rates are concentrated in low- and middle-income regions, where limited access to vaccination, screening, and treatment exacerbates outcomes. Risk is higher among men, older adults, and socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Environmental exposures, particularly aflatoxin contamination in food, continue to play a significant role in certain regions, compounding existing risks.

"Liver cancer is increasingly shaped by preventable and modifiable factors," said Prof. Zhou. "This shift presents both a challenge and an opportunity-while the disease burden may grow, a large proportion of cases could be avoided through targeted interventions."

The researchers emphasize that up to 60% of liver cancer cases are preventable through strategies such as vaccination, lifestyle modification, improved food safety, and early disease management. In the short term, these findings could inform public health campaigns promoting healthier diets, physical activity, and routine screening for high-risk individuals. In the longer term, the integration of artificial intelligence into clinical care could transform liver cancer management, enabling personalized risk prediction, earlier diagnosis, and more effective treatment planning, particularly in resource-limited settings where early detection remains challenging.

"By combining prevention, early detection, and technological innovation, we have the tools to significantly reduce liver cancer mortality over the next decade," Dr. Huang noted.

"However, equitable access to these interventions will be key to achieving meaningful global impact," Prof. Duda further highlights.

Beyond clinical implications, this research is expected to drive interdisciplinary collaborations across public health, oncology, data science, and policy sectors. It underscores the need for coordinated global efforts to address both infectious and metabolic health challenges, particularly in rapidly developing regions. Over the longer term, such integrated strategies could lead to earlier diagnoses, improved survival rates, and reduced healthcare costs, ultimately reducing the global burden of liver cancer.